catallaxy files

catallaxy in technical exile

Government takes IR hit

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This morning’s polls – Newspoll in The Australian and ACNielsen in the Fairfax papers confirm what the the Morgan Poll found last week – the the government is behind in the two-party preferred, and it is almost certainly due to the IR reforms. The Australian thought that the terror legislation might have something to do with it, but they hadn’t seen the Fairfax polls showing general support for it (with the expection of shoot-to-kill). This leaves IR as the only major issue, and another negative survey in the Oz confirms it (full details at Newspoll).

Newspoll comes to almost exactly the same conclusions as Morgan. In Newspoll, 31% say that the reforms will be good for the Australian economy, compared to 29% at Morgan saying they would be good for Australia. 11% of Newspoll respondents think they will be better off, compared to 10% of Morgan respondents.

More evidence too that the government’s campaign isn’t convincing anyone. 30% of Newspoll respondents agree that the reforms will be good for creating jobs, compared to 33% back in July in a Galaxy Poll.

The only new thing Newspoll has found is that 32% of people think they will be worse off – Morgan had gone only for a more neutral ‘no, will not be better off’ (42%). In Newspoll 44% of people, sensibly in my view, are saying that the reforms won’t have any impact on them.

Wednesday update: The IR polls keep coming. In the Fairfax papers today ACNielsen confirms the general pattern found in other polls. Support and opposition are both fractionally down compared to August, but it could just be margin of error within the poll. Neither of the IR campaigns, for or against, is having any obvious significant impact. On personal effects:

Fifty-seven per cent of those aware of the plan said it would make no difference to their own welfare. Thirty-one per cent said they would be worse off and 7 per cent expected to be better off.

That’s a higher no difference figure than Newspoll (44%), perhaps because ACNielsen only asked this question of the people who had actually heard of the reforms.

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Written by Admin

October 25, 2005 at 5:35 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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